As Ai Chi-han explained two weeks ago, Kunming plans to become a regional hub, increasing its connections with Southeast Asian countries. The fulfilment of Kunming’s ambitions depends on the development of transport infrastructures between China and its southern neighbours.
In the past, Kunming played a major role in relations with Southeast Asia, thanks to the Burma Road, for example, or the Kunming-Haiphong railway. After WW2, exchanges between Yunnan and Southeast Asian decreased – mostly due to the Cold War – and Kunming became a dead end.
Since the 90’s, new projects have been drafted to improve transportation between these two regions, by means of highways, a railroad and travel on the Mekong. The Greater Mekong sub-region, created in 1992, illustrates this trend.
However, the execution of these projects has been very slow and random. Of course, the authorities of Kunming support most initiatives that are likely to transform their city into a regional hub, but they have to face resistance from their neighbours and need to adapt to the international context.
Several factors threaten Kunming’s ambitions.
- Kunming’s plan to become a regional hub depends on Chinese diplomacy. The province of Yunnan is not able to make direct deals with its southern neighbours without Beijing’s approval. Cross border projects are the results of international agreements, and these can be lengthy to conclude. For example, it took three years for India and China to negotiate the possible construction of a road from Kunming to Kolkata1
- Southeast Asian countries may also consider increasing traffic and exchanges with their northern giant a threat. China needs to reaffirm that all parties will benefit from more exchanges.
- The new transport infrastructures connecting Yunnan to Southeast Asia need to be efficient and competitive. Several studies show that these in-land routes are still more expensive and less reliable than sea transportation2.
- Administrative regulations need to be reduced to encourage cross-border trade.
- The recent political change in Myanmar may also affect Kunming’s regional leadership. In the past, Myanmar proved to be a reliable partner for China. It is possible that political instability and growing ethnic conflicts may delay China-Myanmar projects. However, Myanmar’s opening is going to increase the level of exchange, and thus more goods will be carried between Myanmar and Yunnan.
Kunming will certainly benefit from the creation of new transport infrastructures to Southeast Asia, but these routes will lead nowhere without strong political support from both the Chinese and the Southeast Asian governments. More cooperation (perhaps modelled on the European Union) is needed to boost Kunming’s southern trade.
- Saibal Dasgupta (2012, 27 November). Road from Kolkata to Kunming? Times of India. http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-11-27/india/35387026_1_stilwell-road-trade-route-yunnan [↩]
- Thiengburanathum P., Banomyong R., . Sopadang A. The impacts of Kunming-Bangkok expressway: logistics channel analysis [↩]
