Category Archives: Balula, Luis

UrbaChina survey on “2050 – Storylines for Chinese cities”

The UrbaChina project is committed to devise long-term qualitative scenarios (2050) on the future of China urbanisation. In their final form, the narrative storylines will support the elaboration of policy recommendations on the four main pillars of the project: urban governance, economy, lifestyles, city planning and life. 

Storylines at the year 2050 are designed to help decision-makers and stakeholders “think outside the box” and to identify strategies, including for the medium term (e.g. to 2020-2025), to move towards desirable futures. The approach adopted is highly participatory, and relies heavily on the inputs provided by the project partners and by a wide community of experts from all world regions through on-line surveys and a series of dedicated workshops.

Building the UrbaChina Scenarios

We started by identifying the main critical uncertainties associated to the urbanisation process. These include macro drivers that affect the overall socio-economic framework of China, such as the ageing of population, the increase in the cost of labour, the pace of technological progress and its impact on economic efficiency, and the increasing attention towards the development of human capital, but also drivers that bear a specific relevance in the urban framework, such as the optimisation of land use, the increasing attention towards the urbanisation of people (as opposed to the urbanisation of land), and policy reforms such as notably that of the hukou system.

A scenario logic was then proposed, based on the combination of two main dimensions: (i) the pace of economic growth (and the priority it keeps receiving in the formulation of public policies), and (ii) the pace and nature of policy reforms. The four scenarios accordingly envisaged are illustrated in the scheme below.

Two of these scenarios were retained for full storylines development :

  • the “Bamboo” scenario, which features rapid, unregulated growth, and accelerated pace of production and consumption, constant change associated with the triumph of a global economic dimension
  • the “ginkgo biloba” scenario, pointing to a solid, slow and more structured growth, with strong roots in the contextual socio-economic and ecological environment, and a progressive build-up of systemic resilience, where the regulative dimension prevails as a driver.

 urbachina scenarios

The survey is on-line!

A survey is now on-line to help us developing the pathways and identifying policy changes that are required to reach one or the other of the two scenarios.

It features three main sections:

  • in the first we invite comments on the storylines and suggestions to improve them along the four main policy areas: urban governance, economy, lifestyles, city planning and life. 
  • in the second we elicit “educated guesses” on the foreseeable evolution of nine selected urbanisation indicators.
  • in the third section we invite you to suggest three wild cards that would apply, in general, to all cities and all scenarios

Your input and feedback are essential in order to fine-tune the storylines description and identify the scenarios pathways and milestones!

Please use your knowledge and imagination and answer the survey at:

https:/www.surveymonkey.com/s/MH533ZK

Sebastien Goulard

Ph.D. in political science (EHESS, Paris); M.A. in social sciences (EHESS, Paris); M.A. in international relations (IRIS, Paris), B.A. (Hons) in international political studies (ESE - Nottingham Trent University)

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Urban Futures-Squaring Circles: Europe, China and the World in 2050 (call for abstracts)

urban futureThe Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon (ICS-UL), the Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems (ISIS) in Rome, and the Institute of Future Cities of The Chinese University of Hong Kong (IfC-CUHK) – are organizing an International Conference on “Urban Futures-Squaring Circles: Europe, China and the World in 2050” (10-11 October 2014) under the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme: UrbaChina – European Project on Sustainable Urbanisation in China. Historical and Comparative Perspectives, Mega-trends towards 2050.

The Lisbon Conference is part of this project, aimed at bringing together scholars and practitioners interested in applying scenarios and foresight approaches to urban policy and planning. We are interested in the sustainable future of cities – for the people who will live there. We seek to discuss current urbanisation trends and resulting challenges for Cities and to identify research priorities and collaborative opportunities between the EU and China.

 

More information to be found on the Conference site.

Urban Future 2050 – Call for Abstracts (extended deadline)

Sebastien Goulard

Ph.D. in political science (EHESS, Paris); M.A. in social sciences (EHESS, Paris); M.A. in international relations (IRIS, Paris), B.A. (Hons) in international political studies (ESE - Nottingham Trent University)

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Urban Futures-Squaring Circles: Europe, China and the World in 2050

urban futureThe Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon (ICS-UL), the Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems (ISIS) in Rome, and the Institute of Future Cities of The Chinese University of Hong Kong (IfC-CUHK) – are organizing an International Conference on “Urban Futures-Squaring Circles: Europe, China and the World in 2050” (10-11 October 2014) under the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme:URBACHINA – European Project on Sustainable Urbanisation in China. Historical and Comparative Perspectives, Mega-trends towards 2050.

The Lisbon Conference is part of this project, aimed at bringing together scholars and practitioners interested in applying scenarios and foresight approaches to urban policy and planning. We are interested in the sustainable future of cities – for the people who will live there. We seek to discuss current urbanisation trends and resulting challenges for Cities and to identify research priorities and collaborative opportunities between the EU and China.

 

The conference will address the following two core themes and four thematic threads:

  • Core Theme I. Scenarios for Cities of the Future
  • Core Theme II. People and Societies in Future Cities

 

  • Thematic thread A: Forward Thinking Methods
  • Thematic thread B: Governance in Future Cities
  • Thematic thread C: Future of Resources
  • Thematic thread D: Future of Urban Systems

More information to be found on the Conference site.

Urban Future 2050 – Call for Abstracts

Sebastien Goulard

Ph.D. in political science (EHESS, Paris); M.A. in social sciences (EHESS, Paris); M.A. in international relations (IRIS, Paris), B.A. (Hons) in international political studies (ESE - Nottingham Trent University)

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A tour of Chenggong, Kunming’s new city

On May 2013, Kunming municipal government moved its headquarters from downtown Kunming to brand new facilities in Chenggong, a new city in the making at about 20 kilometers south of the old city. Chenggong is expected to become the administrative and employment center of the Greater Kunming region, a vast territory of more than 20,000 km2 with about 6.5 million residents. The new town was planned for a population of 1.5 million and construction started in 2003.

Chenggong: the new Kunming municipal government center in Yunnan, Balula Luis
Chenggong: the new Kunming municipal government center, Balula Luis

Chenggong: the new Kunming municipal government center

 Since 2010, however, Chenggong new town has been making headlines on the news and internet blogs, which have described it as “one of the largest ghost towns in Asia”. Meanwhile, in 2010, Kunming officials decided to revise the city’s master plan in order to incorporate sustainable urban design principles on further development. The new master plan1 departed from the original layout of large ‘superblocks’ surrounded by multi-lane arteries, in an attempt to break down the superblocks into smaller blocks and narrower human-scale streets, with a hierarchy of densities and mixed-uses related to the ease of access to the public transportation system. By controlling urban form Chinese authorities expect to achieve a more sustainable, low-carbon urban environment in Chenggong.

balula14

Chenggong master plan (partial view)

 Approaching Chenggong on the Kunming-Chenggong expressway, Balula Luis

Approaching Chenggong on the Kunming-Chenggong expressway

 A visit to Chenggong in early June 2013 allowed for a brief assessment of the progress made so far in the new city. At the time of the visit the urban structure, as seen on the master plan, was still not obvious on the ground. Chenggong’s vast territory was still, apparently, a piecemeal development of separate urban hubs in diverse stages of completion, interconnected by highways, with no visible street hierarchy, and a grid of wide roads and large blocks.

 Chenggong: one of the new urban hubs, Yunnan, Balula Luis

Chenggong: one of the new urban hubs, as seen from the site of the new YunnanUniversity campus

 The subway/light rail system which is supposed to link all the hubs, however, was under fast construction and the first section of the line, connecting downtown Kunming to the first station in Chenggong, had just opened.

 A recently built light-rail line connecting downtown Kunming to Chenggong, Balula Luis

A recently built light-rail line connects downtown Kunming to Chenggong

 Whereas the “ghostly” character of the place was still quite evident, mostly on very recent urban areas, or on the many new parts still in construction, some other areas showed already encouraging signs of human presence (traffic and movement of people), as well as some incipient commerce on a few crossroads. Most importantly, in several completed buildings, many residential units were visibly occupied.
Typical streets and blocks of Chenggong, Yunnan, Balula Luis
Typical streets and blocks in Chenggong, Balula Luis

Chenggong: typical streets and blocks

 A larger influx of residents is expected soon due to a series of factors, such as the relocation of Kunming municipal government; the proximity of the new Yunnan University campus; the completion of the subway/light rail system; and last, but not least, lower apartment prices, as compared with central Kunming.

Typical street in Chenggong, Balula Luis

Chenggong: typical streets and blocks, Balula, Luis

Chenggong: typical streets and blocks

Whilst most new urban areas are high-density blocks, with stand-alone high-rise apartment towers (up to 40 stories) there are also whole blocks of mid-rise buildings (5-6 stories), which may reflect a variation of land-use densities along a future transportation corridor. In all arteries, growing trees and greenery attempt to attenuate the considerable width of streets.

Road landscaping in Chenggong, Kunming, Balula Luis

Chenggong: street and road landscaping is a visible concern everywhere

 As for the city’s urban design, however, the major problems seem to remain unaltered: superblocks are still the norm in Chenggong; the hard infrastructure of multi-lane roadways is prevalent; and the almost complete absence of stores suggests that most shopping must necessarily be done at the shopping mall, in another part of town. The wide streets and superblocks of Chenggong continue conveying the image of a car-oriented urban environment waiting to be populated by cars.Chenggong: an urban hub near completion, Balula Luis

Chenggong: another urban hub near completion

 It is still too early to evaluate the success of the new master plan, but Chenggong’s future, in terms of low-carbon sustainable urban form, will definitely depend on the capacity to find the right fit between urban design, density, land use and transportation decisions both at the local, neighborhood scale and at the regional scale of greater Kunming.

Chenggong, typical street, Balula Luis

Chenggong: one definitely needs a car to move around

 

 

  1. Plan of the month December 2010: low carbon urban design for China (2010), Better cities & towns  http://bettercities.net/article/plan-month-december-2010-low-carbon-urban-design-china-13576, accessed July 27, 2013 []

Luis Balula

Ph.D. Urban Planning and Public Policy (Rutgers University, New Jersey); M.Sc. Urban Affairs (Boston University); Architect (Technical University of Lisbon). Urban and regional planning consultant. Research fellow at Instituto de Ciencias Sociais – Universidade de Lisboa.

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Beyond eco-city development to creating eco-districts out of existing areas: The argument for a Beijing eco-district

Chinese eco-cities can be seen as the largest experiment in urban sustainability ever, and the various pilot projects currently under way will provide many innovations in green technology and valid lessons on sustainable urban development. Given the scale and speed of urbanisation, however, these innovations will come too late for many cities and regions and a huge amount of unsustainable urban development will then have to be retrofitted. In the future it will be more critical to apply the eco-city lessons to the existing urban areas than to keep developing new urban areas, even if more sustainable. Quoting the author: “Eco-cities as isolated areas are the first step in developing urban sustainability, with the development of existing urban districts as eco-cities as the next logical step”. The article also explains the advantages of creating eco-districts and advances the vision of Beijing Core Area as an Eco-District.

Article full version

Luis Balula

Ph.D. Urban Planning and Public Policy (Rutgers University, New Jersey); M.Sc. Urban Affairs (Boston University); Architect (Technical University of Lisbon). Urban and regional planning consultant. Research fellow at Instituto de Ciencias Sociais – Universidade de Lisboa.

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China’s low-carbon industrial zones

On November 22, 2011, the State Council – China’s highest executive body of state power – issued a document on the country’s policy response to climate change1, which called for low-carbon trials at industrial zones, communities and businesses. Industry accounting for 60% of all urban greenhouse-gas emissions, attention turned to industrial zones. But there were no models to follow, and no single set of plans or standards. Many low-carbon industrial zones just “went their own way”.

This year, the US Institute for Sustainable Communities (ISC) released a guide for the development of green industrial parks inChina. The assessment system includes 23 measures across four major categories:

  • energy use and greenhouse-gas management;
  • recycling economy and environmental protection;
  • zone management and protection mechanisms;
  • and planning layout and land use.

Energy use and greenhouse-gas management accounts for 60% of a zone’s score, and as such is the key element of evaluation.

  1. Chun, Zhang (2012) China’s low-carbon zones lack motivation, guidance and idea http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/5318-China-s-low-carbon-zones-lack-motivation-guidance-and-ideas (accessed 8 November 2012) []

Luis Balula

Ph.D. Urban Planning and Public Policy (Rutgers University, New Jersey); M.Sc. Urban Affairs (Boston University); Architect (Technical University of Lisbon). Urban and regional planning consultant. Research fellow at Instituto de Ciencias Sociais – Universidade de Lisboa.

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China 2030. Building a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society

A joint report from the World Bank and China’s Ministry of Finance -Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) identifying and analyzing challenges looking forward to 20301

  • The report proposes six strategic directions for China’s new development strategy. First, rethinking the role of the state and the private sector to encourage increased competition in the economy. Second, encouraging innovation and adopting an open innovation system with links to global research and development networks. Third, looking to green development as a significant new growth opportunity. Fourth, promoting equality of opportunity and social protection for all. Fifth, strengthening the fiscal system and improving fiscal sustainability. Sixth, ensuring thatChina, as an international stakeholder, continues its integration with global markets.
  • Using the 12th Five Year Plan as a starting point, and the six strategic directions as a policy framework, the report lays out a time frame for and sequencing of reforms that can take China toward its vision for 2030.

 

  1. World Bank and DRC (2012) China 2030. Building a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society, The World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council, the People’s Republic of China, Washington DC, http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/China-2030-complete.pdf (accessed 8 November 2012). []

Luis Balula

Ph.D. Urban Planning and Public Policy (Rutgers University, New Jersey); M.Sc. Urban Affairs (Boston University); Architect (Technical University of Lisbon). Urban and regional planning consultant. Research fellow at Instituto de Ciencias Sociais – Universidade de Lisboa.

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