To solve the ageing population problem, Chinese provinces implement two-child policy

 By the endChild in Chongqing, Ai Chi-Han of 2013, NPC Standing Committee [全国人大常委会] offered a resolution easing the one-child policy, requesting relevant local governments amend related regulations and carry out a two-child policy. It will allow married only-child couples to have two children in their new-built family. Currently, Zhejiang and Anhui have adopted this policy. Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Beijing will follow suit in the next few months1. It is expected that there will be a 1 to 2 million population increase in China within two years of launching of this policy2 .

One important reason for which the Chinese government implemented this reform on population policy is the ageing population problem. After 30 years of stringent birth control, the population of China had aged faster than those of other developing countries. However, the Chinese labor force began to decline. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2012, China’s labor force, workers between the ages of 15 and 59, dropped by 3,45 million. It’s the first time that China’s labor force declined since it reformed and opened up3.

Japan has the most serious ageing problem in the world: Japan’s older population (over 65 years old) exceeds 30 million, which is approximately 24.4% of the entire population4. According to UN statistics, in 2010, China’s older population accounted for 9.4% of total population. This number will increase to 13.6% by 2020, 18.7% by 2030, 26.8% by 2040 and it will reach 30.8% by 2050.5, which means that in less than 30 years, China will follow in Japan’s footsteps and encounter the same serious problem of an ageing society. Yet, Japan is different, as it first felt the effects of its ageing society in 1970, when their per capita income was around $ 2,0006. Seeing the start of an ageing society in 1999, with a per capita income of less than $ 1,000 at the time, China has since been regarded as a country experiencing ageing before affluence [未富先老].

At this stage, Chinese government’s deregulation of birth policy may be a solution to the structural population problem. However, Chinese government will now have to deal with the issue of how to implement medical services support, nursery schools, and other aspects of public services.

  1. Zhongguo fang kai dandu er tai, http://news.sina.com.cn/c/z/jszctz/, accessed on 11 February, 2014 []
  2. Ge shengfen “dandu er hai” jinzhan bu yi quanmian fang kai shang wu shijian biao, http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2014-01/18/c_126023868.htm, accessed on 11 February, 2014 []
  3. Guojia tongji ju fabu 2012 nian hongguan jingji shuju, http://big5.ce.cn/gate/big5/www.ce.cn/ztpd/xwzt/zhibo/tjj2012/index.shtml, , accessed on 11 February, 2014 []
  4. Zhongguo wei fu xian lao quanqiu weiyi, http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/MAI3/8464199.shtml, accessed on 11 February, 2014 []
  5. Cai Fang (2012), “Ageing before Affluence”and China’s Sustainable Economic Growth, International Economic Review, 2012, 1, pp. 82-95 []
  6. Japan – GDP per capita, http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/japan/gdp-per-capita, accessed on 11 February, 2014 []

Chi-Han Ai

Ph.D. candidate of EHESS ( École des hautes études en sciences sociales, Paris) focusing on regional economic development in China and Taiwan.

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Chi-Han Ai (February 11, 2014). To solve the ageing population problem, Chinese provinces implement two-child policy. URBACHINA. Retrieved February 15, 2025 from https://doi.org/10.58079/v2p3


One thought on “To solve the ageing population problem, Chinese provinces implement two-child policy

  1. Langer

    This is a very good article. Let us hope you will report on this issue as more and more provinces follow suit: will the regional balance of population be impacted?
    Many thanks anyway.
    F.Langer

    Reply

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