In December 2012, the National Academy of Economic Strategy, at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) published the China Housing Development Report (2012-13), edited by Ni Pengfei, an UrbaChina member and Director of the Urban and Real Estate Economy Research Unit in the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

During the online press conference for China Housing Development Report (2012-13), Professor Ni summarized the report in five key points:

1. In 2012, investment growth in Chinese real estate fell behind that of 2010 and 2011. The growth rate in housing investment between January and October 2012 was 15.7%, whereas the 2011 rate was approximately 30%. In 2012, there was a 7.7% increase in the macroeconomic situation in China. In other words, despite a 15% decline in housing investment, China’s economy, on the whole, rose by 7.7%. This suggests that the macroeconomic situation in China was temporarily released from its overdependence on the real estate market.
2. Unlike the country’s per capita income, which steadily increased, property prices dropped significantly in 2012, which shows that, compared to the progressive overall economy, housing prices experienced a downward trend.
3. Generally, the 2013 housing market is tipped to progress smoothly despite some small oscillations. However, macroeconomic management must be carried out satisfactorily, lest housing prices in some cities continue to rise while those in other cities fall, which would put the country’s economy on the edge of a collapse.
4. The goal of the real estate sector in 2013 is to avert a sharp rise, followed by a severe plunge, in the housing market.
5. The 2013 the real estate market must be strictly regulated.

At the end of the report, Professor Ni made some recommendations. Among them were: inflicting harsh punishment on those responsible for rumours and speculation in the housing industry, enforcing a policy for setting purchase quotas, ending the pre-sale system in housing and stemming the excessive increase in what were, previously, low housing prices.

Reference: Ni Pengfei 倪鹏飞 (2012),  Zhongguo zhufang fazhan baogao中国住房发展报告 , Social Science Academic Press.

Chi-Han Ai

Ph.D. candidate of EHESS ( École des hautes études en sciences sociales, Paris) focusing on regional economic development in China and Taiwan.

More Posts